Jonathan Todd

I wrote for Labour Uncut today on the challenge for the new shadow chancellor.

The Labour leadership election will, finally, end on 25 September. But the identity of the shadow chancellor will be unknown until 7 October, when the results of the shadow cabinet election are announced. 13 days after this the new leader and shadow chancellor will lead our response to the comprehensive spending review. “It is”, as a leadership contender has said, “an incredibly tight timetable for the new leader and their shadow chancellor to map out a policy that might yet determine how we are viewed for the rest of the parliament.”

The general election too quickly gave way to the leadership election. (Which should have started later and been shorter). With the end of the leadership election, the formal involvement in the shadow cabinet election of four of our would-be leaders begins. This is a grueling pace. But the new leader and shadow chancellor will need immediately to demonstrate economic literacy, which means robustly critiquing George Osborne and articulating a credible and appealing alternative economic approach. While this is challenging, there are some relatively simple points that are worth underlining.

First, like the Liberal Democrats, we consistently warned prior to the general election that it was too much of a risk to the economy’s recovery to cut public spending this year. There is no evidence that these risks have significantly diminished.  Business credit remains weak. Lending to businesses fell for the eleventh consecutive month in July. Consumer demand remains sluggish, as tens of thousands of homeowners are expected to face at least four more years of negative equity and redundancies in the public sector are thought unlikely to be absorbed by additional private sector employment.

Second, no matter how the Liberal Democrats defend the shift in their position on public spending cuts this year, the UK is not Greece and was never in danger of becoming Greece. As Rachel Reeves has noted, national debt in the UK in 2009, as a percentage of GDP, was 72 percent, while in Greece it was 119 percent. Additionally, and crucially, having our own currency and a central bank that can set interest rates in the interests of the domestic economy provides us with far more flexibility than is available to the Greeks within the eurozone.

Third, our opposition to cuts this year derives from a deeper view: sustaining economic growth is an indispensible precondition of deficit reduction. In the absence of growth, the deficit will widen as tax receipts fall and unemployment benefit payments rise. Public debt levels are generally more sensitive to growth than changes in tax and spending. George Osborne can cut as aggressively as his Thatcherite heart desires, but if we slip back into recession this cutting will do little to contain the deficit. Indeed, it also risks a deflationary spiral if Osborne responds to recession by persisting with his cuts.

The risk to public finances posed by a double dip recession must be balanced against the risk of higher interest rates cascading through the economy – further credit crunching businesses and raising household mortgage payments – if the deficit reduction plan fails to convince markets. Reduce public spending too early and the double dip risk increases; cut too late and upward pressure on interest rates becomes more likely. George Osborne, in cutting earlier and by £40bn more deeply over this parliament, is putting more emphasis on the later risk than Alistair Darling’s plans do.

Yet, as no lesser economic authority than the FT’s Martin Wolf has observed, “the market is screaming its lack of concern about UK fiscal credibility”. In these circumstances, forcefully illustrated in Ed Balls’ Bloomberg speech, it is perverse for the chancellor to underplay the double dip risk of cutting too early and too deep for the sake of masochistic cuts ostensibly justified by market concern about the deficit.

In truth, Osborne’s plans are driven by an ideological imperative to reduce the size of the state. This goes against the premium which Anatole Kaletsky places upon pragmatism in Capitalism 4.0; his weighty tome on the financial crisis and capitalism’s future. “In an indeterminate world”, he writes, “both economic and institutional decisions will have to proceed by a zigzag process of trial and error.” Rather than this flexibility and adaptability, Osborne, as Pat McFadden has noted, has given us “faith-based economics”.

Labour must be careful, however, that we too do not become inflexible and dogmatic. While Osborne is underplaying the double dip risk, which even those red-blooded socialists at the British chamber of commerce worry about, and is willing a private sector led recovery through little more than his faith in it, the interest rate risk attached to the deficit should be squarely confronted by Labour. Being squeamish about this not only betrays our credentials as the party of pragmatic economics but leaves us seeming trapped in what Phil Collins has called “the comforting illusion that state spending is a straight line to progress”.

This illusion can attach to social as much as to economic policy. And the public sees through it. The mood music emanating from Labour risks seeming too statist if we seem unwilling straightforwardly and even-handedly to address the deficit. Alistair Darling has left plans which should take us a long way towards avoiding this outcome. But our new shadow chancellor will still have crucial decisions to take during a testing first fortnight in office.

The Sunday Mail reports that support for Labour has fallen to 23 percent – the lowest since opinion polls began in 1943. If Labour polled this badly at a general election, the party would lose 200 seats to the Conservatives, who would hold a massive, carte blanche majority of 220. The survey was also the first to record that the majority of voters want Gordon Brown to stand down now as PM.

These are desperate times, indeed, for Labour and while the expenses revelations “will hurt the reputation of all politicians”, argues Andrew Rawnsley, ”the damage is likeliest to be greatest to Labour at the next election”. Another poll supports Rawnsley’s view. There have been many highs and lows under PM Brown. But each low seems lower and more desperate than the last one. I didn’t think it was possible to go any lower than the McBride affair but recent days have probably managed it.

It may be that everything that has been revealed in recent days was “within the rules”. What McBride was up to certainly was not. Nonetheless, Brown’s response in both cases was to blame the rules and insist upon their reform. But people, especially public figures, have to take responsibility for their actions, irrespective of what the rules may or may not say. While the McBride affair was undoubtedly depressing in the extreme, there is something even more depressing about the expenses revelations because the people concerned are people who are widely respected and admired within the Labour Party, in contrast to McBride.

Of course, as I have heard Tessa Jowell and Ed Miliband say on TV, we should avoid making judgements on the basis of partial information and Ben Bradshaw and Phil Woolas also challenge the versions of events that have been reported about them. I am afraid, however, that, whatever the reality of the situation may prove to be, the damage has already been done and the dye has been cast for Labour. The party can now only, to mix metaphors, walk into the hurricane of public anger.    

What a prospect. It must make the most battle hardened Labour campaigner nervous about door knocking. Those lions have been lead to this by the expenses claims of the donkeys that lead them. Alan Johnson, however, doesn’t appear quite so donkey like. According to Rawnsley, he, along with Hilary Benn and Ed Miliband emerges ”as acmes of frugality who make modest and entirely reasonable claims for performing their duties”.

James Forsyth argues that this increases the likeihood of Miliband “winning the leadership after the next election”. But the question will increasingly be asked whether, if this were to happen, this would make him the next leader of the Labour Party. Even before the expenses story broke The Mirror did not seem disinclined to the prospect of the frugal Johnson, who has recently appeared to indicate more of willingness to take on the top job than previously, replacing Brown before the election. That frugality must have been good for his conscience at the time and now also appears a smart career move.

 Matthew D’Ancona speculates that he ”may yet be the first person to become Labour leader by going on television and radio repeatedly to deny that he is either capable of the job or interested in it”. These denials mean that Johnson is considered to lack a steely, Michael Heseltine or Brown like determination to accede to the very top. Given this and past experience – the lack of any challenge to Brown either when he became leader or last summer – D’Ancona seems justified in his view that “for all the sound and fury we can expect over the summer”, in terms of plots against Brown, ”the PM will still survive and fight the general election”. But D’Ancona was writing prior to the expenses story. Is this story a game changer? And, if so, how will the game end?

Martin Bright is right think to that there is a “distinct possibility that (it may end with) the Labour Party (going) into terminal decline as a credible political force”. He argues that the best way to avert that outcome is for “the younger generation of Labour politicians … to take control now”. Who can he have in mind? I don’t think Johnson or Harriet Harman, another potential successor to Brown, can be considered part of the younger generation. But James Purnell and Jon Cruddas could. Allegra Stratton has them down as a ‘dream ticket’.

“Why don’t James and Jon grow some balls and get together and challenge GB”, a “Labour grandee” apparently recently told her. The “grandee” will presumably hope that the expenses story has made these balls grow. At this stage, however, I am not sure whether it is certain that Purnell, nor Ed Balls or Yvette Cooper, either of whom (but surely not both?) might well consider standing in any contest that featured Purnell, is out of the expenses wood - though, this is far from the only question that might be raised about the supposed dream ticket. They are usually considered, for one thing, to be on opposing wings of the party. David Miliband – another member of the younger generation with leadership ambitions – certainly hasn’t come out of the expenses story as well as his brother or Johnson.    

If Brown can be prised from Downing Street – and that definitely remains a big if – then the number of names discussed here (Johnson, Harman, Purnell, Cruddas, Balls, Cooper and both Milibands) would seem to open up the spectre of an unseemly scramble for Number 10 – if they all were to grow balls, as it were - at a time when we face challenges so grave that Frank Field has been talking about the need for a national unity government. Peter Mandelson may insist that Brown is focused on these challenges, not his cleaner, but polls of 23 percent cannot fail to darken Labour’s mood music. It may now be the Tories turn to hold the expenses spotlight but David Cameron senses enough weakness around Brown to be edging towards a confidence vote, via the Royal Mail vote.

The chances are that Brown will avoid a confidence vote by giving enough concessions to Labour backbenchers to win the Royal Mail vote with Labour votes, while losing Cameron’s support for his Royal Mail plans. But how many concessions can Brown give without losing the support of the responsible Minister, Mandelson, a potential Geoffrey Howe in this drama if ever there was one? It’s bizarre that Brown has ended up in a position of such dependence upon his old foe – The Sunday Telegraph speculates that Brown may reduce this dependence, in respect of the Royal Mail vote at least, by moving Mandelson to the Foreign Office, “a post he has long coveted”. How these once bitter rivals play their cards on the Royal Mail vote may go some way to determining whether everyone’s favourite ex-postie, Johnson, ends up as PM. The Sunday Telegraph also suggests that Brown may try to prevent this happening by making Johnson Chancellor and, thus, “binding him in” to Brown. This creates the risk, however, as Peter Hoskin notes, that Alistair Darling will play Howe.

All of this, however, is just fluff and hot air – or “sound and fury” to use D’Ancona’s term. Not only is it fluff and hot air, it is fluff and hot air at a time of crisis. Shuffling deckchairs on the Titantic is the right expression. Martin Bright correctly grasps the depth of the crisis facing Labour. The worst thing Labour could offer now (and I have stopped assuming that things can’t get any more desperate, as that assumption has proved sadly, too unrealistic) is more fluff and hot air. That is to say more talk of a challenge to Brown. Talking about challenging Brown but not actually challenging Brown, i.e. not growing balls but pretending to, is the worst of all Labour worlds. It is worse than growing balls and challenging Brown. It is also worse than not growing balls and supporting Brown.

This is a crisis of fluff and hot air in a deeper and more dangerous sense than this, however. Brown promised the country a vision but, frankly, this only came into view with the credit crunch. This gave his government a sense of purpose that it otherwise lacked. Once a government and a party becomes so lacking in purpose that it needs a global crisis to give it one, it is little surprise that the public have little sense of what the party’s purposes, motivations and convictions really amount to. I fear that those battle hardened Labour campaigners, who are newly nervous about door knocking, would struggle to give a convincing answer as to what the point of a fourth Labour term would be, if asked on the doorstep. These lions have again been let down by the donkeys that lead them. And just as badly let down as they have been in respect of expenses.

The Labour Party, whoever leads it, desperately needs a stronger sense of direction. Until the party rediscovers, re-imagines and revivifies its purposes, it cannot complain about these purposes being unclear to the electorate. The most encouraging thing about the latest ‘date‘ between the ‘dream ticket’ is that it occurred at the launch of an exciting new Demos pamphlet. The Liberal Republic is a great publication by Richard Reeves and Phil Collins, which is likely to appeal to Alan Milburn, a name sure to be mentioned among the plotters. The likes of Milburn, Purnell and Cruddas are intelligent and bright enough to think through the thoughts that will need to be thought through for Labour to really rediscover its sense of direction. They should have the balls to do so and not to get distracted by the fluff and hot air. Only one of these pursuits, ultimately, will make a real difference. We were promised vision and we were promised substance. That is still what is required, whoever leads Labour.

Some might think that Andy Burnham tried to fuse incompatibles in socialism and culture in his address to the Fabian Society tonight. However, Tony Crosland produced some memorable lines on culture in one of the greatest socialist tracts that this country has ever produced.

“We need not only higher exports and old-age pensions, but more open-air cafes, brighter and gayer streets at night, later closing-hours for public houses, more local repertory theatres, better and more hospitable hoteliers and restaurateurs, brighter and cleaner eating-houses, more riverside cafes, more pleasure-gardens on the Battersea model, more murals and pictures in public places, better designs for furniture and pottery and women’s clothes, statues in the centre of new housing-estates, better-designed street-lamps and telephone kiosks, and so on ad infinitum. The enemy in all this will often be in unexpected guise; it is not only dark Satanic things and people that now bar the road to the new Jerusalem, but also, if not mainly, hygienic, respectable, virtuous things and people, lacking only in grace and gaiety”.

I say nothing of the extent to which Conservatives are “hygienic, respectable and virtuous”, or whether they have ”grace and gaiety”, but they are committed to a £20m cut in the budget for Burnham’s Department of Culture, Media and Sports (DCMS). While Burnham sees culture as an engine to economic and social progress, the Conservatives view it as something to be trimmed when public finances tighten. 

79 per cent of people think Liverpool is a city on the rise – the highest percentage of any UK city. Burnham citied this as evidence of the success of the city as European Capital of Culture in 2008. He wants to build upon this by creating a British City of Culture Prize.

Matthew Taylor provided a typically stimulating response to Burnham’s lecture and asked, in respect of the British City of Culture Prize, “how distinctive are our local cultural strategies?” It is to be hoped that they are if culture is to drive economic success in an era of globalisation as, I suspect, one of the ironies of globalisation is that far from enveloping all local cultures in some kind of homogenising global process of McDonaldisation, as globalisation’s detractors contend, it allows greater economic value to derive to the culturally distinct and locally particular.

“What defines the anti-globalisation radicals”, as Chris Patten argues, “is an extraordinary lack of faith in human beings. The movement of people from one country to another will apparently destroy national cohesion and integrity. Individuals will be ground down, along with their local identity, by an impersonal global capitalist machine”. A more optimistic view of human beings sees globalisation as partly being about a flowering of a more diverse range of choices and experiences becoming available to ever more people, which will be taken advantage of in positive ways. On this view, local cultural strategies maximise economic value by being as distinct as possible.

So let’s erect those statues in the centres of new housing estates, which Crosland called for, but let’s do so in a manner which builds genuine local cultural capital. Then, while Crosland, ironically, may have seen such statues as looking forward to a time when economic problems will be solved, they will make their best contribution towards weathering the stormy economic weather ahead.

Given that I have traveled from London to the north to spend Christmas with my family, this seems the perfect juncture to post this slice of Jeff Stelling genius. It can only be the kind of people who have never been to Middlesbrough and do not know about the Cleveland Hills, the inspiration for Stelling’s ire, which can give us the offensive politics of David Cameron’s favourite think-tank. In many ways, their “close the north” rhetoric is more redolent of heartless spivs than even the latest financial scandal to befall the Tory high command. Well, perhaps, Policy Exchange provides the heartlessness and Michael Spencer the spiving.

Alan Johnson observes that David Cameron wants to transform the Conservatives from “a party of proud Etonians and closet gays to a party of proud homosexuals and closet Etonians”. Indeed, the Conservatives may have come to accept that gays do not attract enemy radar but they are discovering that cads certainly do.

http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=l7a1xIVoEF8